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| The Great Warming: Climate Change and the Rise and Fall of Civilizations | 
 enlarge | Author: Brian Fagan
Publisher: Bloomsbury Press
Category: Book
List Price: $26.95
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Avg. Customer Rating:  14 reviews
Sales Rank: 14759
Media: Hardcover
Number Of Items: 1
Pages: 304
Shipping Weight (lbs): 1.3
Dimensions (in): 9.3 x 6.4 x 1.2
ISBN: 1596913924
Dewey Decimal Number: 904.5
EAN: 9781596913929
ASIN: 1596913924
Publication Date: March 4, 2008
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Product Description
How the earth’s previous global warming phase, from the tenth to the fifteenth centuries, reshaped human societies from the Arctic to the Sahara—a wide-ranging history with sobering lessons for our own time. From the tenth to the fifteenth centuries the earth experienced a rise in surface temperature that changed climate worldwide—a preview of today’s global warming. In some areas, including Western Europe, longer summers brought bountiful harvests and population growth that led to cultural flowering. In the Arctic, Inuit and Norse sailors made cultural connections across thousands of miles as they traded precious iron goods. Polynesian sailors, riding new wind patterns, were able to settle the remotest islands on earth. But in many parts of the world, the warm centuries brought drought and famine. Elaborate societies in western and central America collapsed, and the vast building complexes of Chaco Canyon and the Mayan Yucatan were left empty. As he did in his bestselling The Little Ice Age, anthropologist and historian Brian Fagan reveals how subtle changes in the environment had far-reaching effects on human life, in a narrative that sweeps from the Arctic ice cap to the Sahara to the Indian Ocean. The history of the Great Warming of a half millennium ago suggests that we may yet be underestimating the power of climate change to disrupt our lives today—and our vulnerability to drought, writes Fagan, is the “silent elephant in the room.”
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| Customer Reviews: Read 9 more reviews...
 Very Informative Book for the Climate Layman March 10, 2008
53 out of 61 found this review helpful
Brian Fagan, a popular anthropoogist, has again written a well researched, clearly written book on climate and human anthropology. The Great Warming details how climate in the past affected different civilizations. From the Mayan Culture to Medieval Europe, Fagan investigates the period known as The Medieval Warm Period (800AD to 1350AD). Unlike other his other well regarded book, the Little Ice Age, Fagan expands his research into Asia, the Saraha, China, India, the Artic, and South America. As the result of his research, he believes that the Medieval Warm Period should be re-named the Medieval Dry Period, as much of the globe saw periods of devastating droughts, with Europe being the exception.
What Brian Fagan does best is to get down to the micro level of human existence during these periods. He uses his forensic skills in illustrating how individuals from the peasant to the nobility coped with sudden changes in thier local climate. He ties in history, anthropoligy and just enough climate science to render a very detailed easy to read narrative. The reader does not have to be a professional climate scientist or anthropoligst to understand his essays. Techinical language is kept to a minimum. His chapters that cover Gengis Khan, the Intuits, as well the Moors Gold Trade are quite fascinating.
There are a few technical defects I see in this book. One, is his use of the now famed Hockey Stick graph authored by Dr. Michael Mann. The reader should be warned that many of Fagan's climate graphs are derived from this flawed temperature reconstruction. The Hockey Stick essientially writes off the Medieval Warm Period as well as the Little Ice Age. Michael Mann believes they were both regional (European) events, and not global in reach. Subsequent audits done by McKitrick and McIntyre, as well as by Von Storch raised serious questions as to the validity of the Hockey Stick. I get the feeling, Dr Fagan had to answer to the Hockey Stick, as his previous book on the Little Ice Age pretty much concluded that the Little Ice Age was a global and not a regional climate event. Fagan, to his credit, stays out of the political catfights that now surround the whole question of Climate Change, and focuses mainly on the human implications. Fagan relies mainly on human records, fossils, and archeology, and not on esoteric proxy temperature reconstructions or global circulation models. The other defect I found concerns the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Dr Fagan only visited this oscillation briefly when he discussed the climate of Western North America. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) clearly enhances the strength of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Dr Fagan also gives no mention of the Atlantic Mutlidecadal Oscialltion (AMO). Together, the AMO and PDO drive about 60% of our global weather patterns. The study of these 2 oscillations are in thier infancy. Depsite what Dr Fagan says, the science is far from settled.
The power of this book lies in the evidence that Dr Fagan presents. That evidence is that as far as human civilizations are concerned, in the long run it is not temperature but precipitation that we should be worried about. Through out history , the majority of humans have lived not in the temperate mid latitudes, but in the tropics and subtropics. For this reason, atmospheric oscillations such as the Walker Circulation and ENSO drive the rise and fall of many civilzations through aburpt changes in precipitation patterns.
I suggest the reader purchase both the Great Warming and the Little Ice, and read them back-to-back. Brian Fagen offers a powerfull narrative on the implications of Climate Change. It matters not if the reader is a proponent of Anthropgenic Global Warming or a skeptic. The Great Warming both serves to enlighten and to warn. It is written by an excellent scientist and fantastic writer who obviously loves the field that he studies.
 Global Climate Change In Historical Perspective March 12, 2008
37 out of 42 found this review helpful
Most people who have heard the term "Medieval Warming Period" tend to think of it as a period of good weather in Western Europe which led to population growth, the construction of Gothic Cathedrals, and the beginning of the rise of centralized nation-states. Brian Fagan, in another work as intriguing as his earlier "The Little Ice Age, "The Long Summer," and "Floods, Famines, and Emperors," now examines the world wide evidence that this particular warming period not only affected Western Europe but Asia, Africa, Polynesia, and the Americas as well.
I find Fagan's work fascinating on many levels. His clear, succinct explanations of the science behind tree ring, glacial ice core, and sedimentation analyses are approachable but not insultingly simple for non-scientists. His ability to draw parallels is impressive, helping us to recognize that what benefited or at least did not harm one culture was damaging or even catastrophic to others. This is quite important when we study the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, which can cause simultaneous floods in the Americas and droughts in India. I especially like his short vignettes of life in various cultures during the Warming Period, which place the climate changes they had to deal with in human context.
This is an important book which helps us better understand the role climate change has played in the past and its potential role in our own future.
 Entertaining, but must be read with discernment April 21, 2008
26 out of 46 found this review helpful
Global warming alarmism has now become both a cult and an industry. It is unclear whether or not Brian Fagan is fully of one camp or the other, but he definitely has a foot in both. Early in his book, he says the "prolonged debate over anthropogenic global warming is over, for the scientific evidence documenting our contribution to a much warmer world of the future is now beyond the stage of controversy." Ignoring controversy is not the same as controversy not existing. Just a week ago, for example, Kerry Emanuel, a climate scientist at Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a well known expert on hurricane prediction reversed his views on global warming and hurricane formation. Emanuel now says "The [computer] models are telling us something quite different from what nature seems to be telling us." In short, the issue of antropogenic contribution to global warming is far from settled.
Fagan is an anthropologist and an entertaining writer. He is also preening, as he frequently interjects entirely irrelvant asides on his travels. He appears to be competing with Jared Diamond in trying to explain the rise and fall of societies.
Here, Fagan, speaks of the five centuries between 800 to 1300 referred to as the Medieval Warm Period. Not unexpectedly, Fagan keeps trying to link his history with global warming alarmism. There are numerous references to (non-scientist) Al Gore's "An Inconvenient Truth" without mentioning all the inaccuracies, if not outright lies, in that so-called documentary. (A British court has verified some of the falsehoods in that movie.) One of the more laughable references Fagan makes is using Gore's claim about Mt. Kilimanjaro melting because of global warming. Several serious scientific studies have proven this wrong. Likewise, Fagan relies on Gore's claims of massive rises in sea level, which are also rebutted by serious scientists.
Fortunately, Fagan spends much of his time recounting the actual history, as far as it is known, of that period and the impact of the natural warming on human societies and it is in this area that Fagan shines. Some of his "history" is quite speculative and to his credit, Fagan acknowledges this, though sometimes in a sly way.
He covers the world and some of his narratives, such as on the Mongols and how the planet's warming and resultant droughts may have driven the Mongol tribes to conquer much of the known world are fascinating. Likewise his explanaton of medieval travel across Africa is fascinating.
Overall, Fagan has produced an interesting history of the medieval warming. As long as you are careful and check his facts, it is an enjoyable and informative read. Just don't fall for his global warming alarmism and carefully note the many instances where he acknowledges that he is speculating in his conclusions.
Jerry
 Great Unfulfilled Promise June 16, 2008
6 out of 9 found this review helpful
Brian Fagan has written an interesting, very readable book. Those who are concerned about global climate change will love it. Those who are unconcerned will hate it. Those who are looking for a well-reasoned scientific argument will come away disappointed.
In 1992, Al Gore published a political treatise on global warming called Earth in the Balance: Ecology and the Human Spirit. Gore's argument was much the same as the Prophet Jonah's argument to the Assyrians: change your evil ways or perish. Gore supported his argument with statistics and with examples of earlier civilizations that outstripped their resources and perished. Although Gore did not claim to be writing a book of science, his book was highly acclaimed in its time.
Sixteen years later, the debate has moved on and the Great Warming adds very little to it. Fagan claims to be conducting a scientific inquiry, yet his conclusions are based more on politics and less on science than Gore's political treatise. If footnotes water the garden of knowledge, this book is an arid desert. Fagan's poor choice of where to irrigate does not help.
Here is one example: "Violence was a fact of life in medieval Europe and an integral part of politics." (P. 23.) It seems rather obvious that in a society where rent and taxes are paid by providing military service to an overlord, there will be violence. Fagan overstates his case here though. He does footnote that but not his sweeping statement that the Medieval Warm Period was less warm than today. (P. 16-17.) It does not help his credibility when he later contradicts himself, admitting that this question "is still a matter of much debate." (P. 232.) If medieval agriculture was possible during the Medieval Warm Period in places that are too cold to support crops today, such as the Swiss Alps, Trondheim (which is well north of Oslo in Norway), and even Greenland, as he notes, then why is global warming necessarily harmful? He cites numerous contrary examples from other parts of the world, but one is tempted to recall an old adage: it is an ill wind that blows no good. Whatever the change in climate, it seems to help some and hurt others. His book is full of examples.
Fagan has a tendency to make sweeping statements without proof. Some of them are clearly wrong. His lack of footnotes hurts him seriously because it causes one to question other facts within his realm of expertise that might be correct. For example, he claims that the "Capetian kings (of France), whose dynasty began in 987. . . created an ideology that proclaimed they were chosen by God." (P. 24.) This is a ridiculous statement and it is easily disproved. Hugh Capet did indeed found the Capetian dynasty when he became king in 987 but he and his heirs hardly invented the concept of the divine right of kings to rule. The preceding dynasty, the Carolingians, were named for Charlemagne, who had been crowned by the Pope in 800 as the first Holy Roman Emperor. That is as good as it gets for divine right in medieval Christendom. The Carolingians' predecessors, the Merovingian kings of the Franks, also claimed divine right. It took papal sanction for the first Carolingian king to depose the last Merovingian king. In many cultures of the ancient world as far back as the Pharaohs and perhaps even before them, rulers often claimed either to be gods or to have been descended from the gods.
Fagan speaks glowingly of expanding trade in the ninth century and how Charlemagne controlled important trade routes across the North Sea. This claim no doubt would come as news to the Vikings, who sacked Paris twice in the ninth century before unsuccessfully laying siege to it in 885-886. In the ninth century, the Vikings sacked coastal cities all over the North Sea, in the Irish Sea, and even as far south as Spain. They were strong enough to settle in many of the places they attacked, such as England, Scotland, and Ireland (and later, Normandy). Dublin was actually founded by the Norsemen in the middle of the ninth century. There was little trade across the North Sea in the ninth century. If anyone controlled such trade as there was, it was the Norsemen and not Charlemagne or his successors.
Fagan's French geography is questionable: "Some parts of France, such as Brittany, were in shambles. . . . Only the western, Celtic-speaking regions escaped invasion. . ." (P. 24.) Brittany is of course both the westernmost part of France. In the ninth and tenth centuries, it was perhaps the most Celtic part.
Fagan also gets into trouble by overemphasizing climate in English history after the Medieval Warm Period: "the greatest fear of England's Tudor monarchs was urban unrest caused by grain shortages." (P. 32.) Henry VII founded the Tudor dynasty by defeating his predecessor in battle and thereby ending the Wars of the Roses. His greatest fear appears to have been a renewal of civil war after his death. That may have been true also for his son and successor, Henry VIII, who left detailed instructions in his will about the succession. Henry VIII is well-known for founding the Protestant Church of England and for his many marriages. Although he concerned himself deeply in all the affairs of his realm, grain shortages do not seem to have been his biggest concern. His son, Edward VI, was a boy king with a brief reign. Mary, who attempted to restore the Catholic Church, was certainly more afraid of the Protestants than she was of grain shortages. Elizabeth was concerned about plots by Catholics within her realm, by her cousin Mary Queen of Scots, and by Philip, King of Spain. Most of Fagan's readers will have heard of the Spanish Armada, sent by Philip. That completes the Tudor dynasty so one has to wonder which Tudor monarchs Fagan meant, and where he got his information.
Fagan might be on firmer ground in discussing geological and archaeological evidence of drought in the American southwest, in the Yucatan peninsula, in Peru, in Cambodia, and in China. He seems much more comfortable here than in dealing with reported history. Even in discussing China, which has had a bureaucratic tradition for two thousand years, he relies almost solely upon archaeology and geology. He suggests that the Chinese histories tend to focus on matters other than climate. Maybe he is right, although neighboring Korea and Japan have kept records dating back more than a thousand years showing the dates when the cherry trees blossomed in the spring.
His discussion of the influence of climate on Pacific trade winds and on the monsoon is interesting, and he makes a good case for how changes in the monsoon and the trade winds led to the settlement of the Pacific islands and to the downfall of the Pueblo, the Mayans, and the Khmer (although the last one occurred after the end of the Medieval Warm Period). His argument that climate change led to the depredations of the Mongols is interesting but speculative. Since other invaders such as the Khitan, the Seljuk Turks, and the Magyars had invaded civilized lands from the Eurasian steppes over a period of several hundred years before the election of Chinggis Khan as Great Khan in 1206, and the Arabs had expanded out of Arabia in the seventh century, well before the Medieval Warm Period, his conclusion is certainly an oversimplification.
All in all this is a "good read" and perhaps even useful for its discussion of the complex relationship among the monsoon, trade winds, ENSO, La Nina, and the ITCZ. However, I cannot call it a good book.
It's all about rain . . . or lack of it June 1, 2008
5 out of 5 found this review helpful
Climate change is a regular item in the news. Most articles and books look at the future - few address the past. While the human condition is a large consideration, real effects are not often dwelt on. Brian Fagan makes up for both these lacks in this finely researched and comprehensive study. In a framework centred on a millennium in the past, he takes us on a global tour of what is known as The Medieval Warm Period. Lasting for half a millennium, about 850 C.E. to 1300 C.E, Fagan shows us the importance of understanding the global nature of climate and its interconnected elements.
In Europe, the era was later named the High Middle Ages. Flourishing trade, wine grown in the British Isles and shipped to France [!] and the mighty cathedrals erected typified the period. Elsewhere, conditions weren't as salubrious. In the North American Southwest, drought brought to a close the civilisation of Chaco Canyon and toppled the great Mayan Empire. In Asia, the great Ankor Wat, built to symbolise a vast and rich realm, was abandoned to the jungle. China's peasant population, always at the edge of survival, was driven from their lands in many places by alternating extended droughts and torrential rainfalls stripping the soil. Even the Mongol Horde was prompted to move in what proved nearly catastrophic for Europe, driven by the need for grazing lands.
Enduring climate change has been a human consideration from the beginning. Even our evolutionary roots lie in the drying of Africa and the subsequent emergence of the savannah. In one sense, climate is what brought us the role of the one bipedal ape. The development of agriculture made us yet more vulnerable to shifts in climate, Fagan reminds us. Dependence on rainfall is the foundation of raising crops, alleviated only a little by irrigation canals. Irrigated farming plays a major role in this book, with the South American and other civilisations struggling with problems of water management. Those lacking such amenities, such as California Indians, suffered drastically when the severest droughts in thousands of years killed off natural food supplies.
Fagan's talent as a writer is equalled by his feeling for the human condition. In each region he describes, it's more than weather changes that he's concerned with. It's what that meant to the local population and how it reacted. The author uses a deft ploy to capture the reader's interest at the beginning of each section. He sets up a local scene with imaginary, but carefully defined, participants. The situation reflects the weather and social conditions, indicating how those interact to produce behaviours and adjustments.
At first glance, this book may seem merely a "history" with little meaning for today's conditions or those of the future. However, it is far from that - being instead a diagnosis for what is to come. Fagan concludes by reminding us of past population dislocations resulting from the great droughts. That pressure is certain to emerge again, and he asks how ready we are to deal with it. Although climate change is "normal", as the events of the Medieval Warm Period demonstrate, the population today is vastly larger than it was then. With the human contribution to warming accelerating the process, it will be billions of people affected by what is to come. In the earlier time, some people, such as the Chaco Canyon residents, had the ability to adjust, our capacity to follow their example is curtailed by our high density centres. This book is an overdue warning of what we, or our grandchildren, will be facing. [stephen a. haines - Ottawa, Canada]
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