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| The Great Bust Ahead: The Greatest Depression in American and UK History is Just Several Short Years Away. This is your Concise Reference Guide to Understanding Why and How Best to Survive It | 
 enlarge | Author: Daniel A. Arnold
Publisher: Vorago-US
Category: Book
Buy New: $8.95
New (4) Used (13) from $7.98
Avg. Customer Rating:  46 reviews
Sales Rank: 65517
Media: Paperback
Pages: 64
Shipping Weight (lbs): 0.2
Dimensions (in): 8.1 x 5.2 x 0.2
ISBN: 159196153X
Dewey Decimal Number: 650
EAN: 9781591961536
ASIN: 159196153X
Publication Date: November 25, 2002
Availability: Usually ships in 24 hours
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Product Description
The Great Bust Ahead is a concise, straight to the point short book laying out in stark terms the case for a coming depression of historically unprecedented magnitude. It will be worse than the 1930s, beginning nominally in 2012, but perhaps as early as 2009-2010 and lasting up to thirteen years. Centered on hard fact demographics, the book boldly claims that the data presented are so irrefutable, that the outcome predicted by the book is equally as irrefutable. The compelling proof presented accurately accounts for the detailed trend of the economy from 1920 to today (something never before accomplished), and projects out to 2030. The book is very easy to read and understand, and requires no prior knowledge of economics. Down to earth things the average person can do to prepare for what is coming are covered. A summary of the catastrophic domestic social and international consequences is offered. October 2007 Update: In 2002 when this book was published, in addition to the massive depression beginning around the end of the decade, it forecast:
1. The economy, as reflected by the DJIA, would resume its upwards march in late 2002 or 2003. This is exactly what happened.
2. The DJIA would have a snapback to 13,000 to 14,000 and the FTSE to 6,000 to 7,000 by 2004, but delayed possibly by wars/politics/terrorism/scandals. This is exactly what has happened. Although the full snapback has been delayed for the reasons described, the DJIA has now closed over 14,100 and the FTSE over 6,700.
3. The DJIA returns from 2003 to 2012 would average a historically long-term normal of 7% to 8%. So far, with the delayed full snapback for the reasons described, DJIA actual returns have averaged a more modest 5.8%, as would be expected.
4. Interest rates would increase from 2003 onwards. This is exactly what has happened.
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| Customer Reviews: Read 41 more reviews...
 The sky is falling! The sky is falling! October 21, 2003
157 out of 212 found this review helpful
This book is a fascinating read and I recommend it. But I can't help but think the author is acting like Chicken Little. First off, the author does NOT have an Economics background. Having said this, many prominent economists would agree with his conclusion that a great economic downturn will occur around 2011 after a great boom. The crux of the author's argument is that the consumer spending of 45-54 year olds drive the economy. In fact, there is a strong correleation between the the number of 45-54 yr olds in the demographics and the Dow Jones. By 2011, as the number of 45-54 yr olds decline, so will the Dow Jones. The author fails, however, to point out the correlation between the Dow Jones and economic indicators such as unemployment, productivity, and GDP. This is a huge missing link to his argument. There are other factors which the author does not address, such as technological growth that is driving up the productivity. The fact that the Great Depression was caused by, not only the demographics, but wildly unregulated financial system is totally ommitted.
 THIS VERY LIKELY WILL OCCUR! April 3, 2003
107 out of 130 found this review helpful
Daniel Arnold illustrates here how the stock market has performed over the last 80 years, and why it has, and he also extrapolates it's performance out to about 2035, with a very bad economic depression starting sometime around 2012. Arnold uses demographics to come to his conclusions and he presents a very solid case indeed. He rightly criticizes stock market analysts for their short term forecasts, and also Alan Greenspan for faulty work also. This is a short, concise, and to the point book, I found it fascinating. About the only possible flaw I saw in this book is that Arnold believes that during the coming depression oil prices may hit [$$] a barrel. But if you read HUBBERT'S PEAK: THE IMPENDING WORLD OIL SHORTAGE by Kenneth Deffeyes, a picture of oil shortages emerges instead, which would exacerbate the economic decline. It will be interesting to see which force wins out here. On a personal note, I remember everyone buying those Nasdaq stocks in a frenzy back in the late 1990's, most of those companies were losing money right and left and their shares were selling for [$$-$$]dollars, or more! I thought it was a good example of "you scratch my back and I'll scratch yours." Of course everyone knows that bubble burst. Japan's stock market bubble burst about 10 years ago, due in large part by an older generation spending less. The United States is headed the way of Japan, the massive post-war generation soon retiring and putting a damper big time on the economy. Arnold uses many graphs in this book, he clearly shows that the next handful of years may be okay, but watch out afterwards, the party may be over in a big way. The final few pages gives advice on what can be done on a personal basis to survive in the tough times ahead. Another interesting book to read, older by a few years is THE RETIREMENT MYTH by Craig Karpel.
 A Worthwhile, If Exaggerated, Warning April 17, 2005
57 out of 64 found this review helpful
The author is actually bullish on the markets from 2003-2011. He then foresees a massive crash bigger and longer than what we experienced in the 1930s, as the demographic makeup of the West also collapses.
But like so many prognosticators, this one makes a big, tenuous assumption: that investors have NOT priced in the alleged precipitating event (demographics) and won't until it's too late. It could be that the market already knows that our coming demographic decline and huge debt load will eventually constrain stock market returns. That information might be discounted in current and future stock prices, and they therefore may never reach the heights the author forecasts they will before the Great Bust ensues.
While I do expect a major bust within the next decade, it may not be as severe as the author thinks, precisely because people will be anticipating the trends he lays out. In other words, while the Dow does seem likely to crash to 5,000, it may be from a top of around 15,000 rather than 30,000. And instead of crashing after the precise demographic top in 2012, it might begin crashing much earlier, as our huge debts prematurely "age" the population and hamper our spending power, and investors begin to see the writing on the wall. (I plan on turning bearish in 2008, when the first wave of Baby Boomers begin to retire.)
You'd be taking a huge gamble by piling in to stocks now and planning to time your exit point based on this book or your expectation of a "bubble boom" to occur within some other author's time-frame. If the stock market will ultimately be much lower than it is now, you'd be wise to build cash and accumulate gold coins now. If you're more aggressive-minded and long-term oriented, use major market rallies as opportunities to ease your way into bear funds.
 Disappointing [short book] March 25, 2004
43 out of 52 found this review helpful
The author basically has only one theory to discuss in this [short book], and once presented in the most simplistic of terms, he does not feel the need to discuss it further. His theory is that the DJIA can be predicted based on the numbers of 45-54 year olds - "big spenders" as he calls them. When the numbers of this age group goes down, so will the economy. The rest of the book describes in overly dramatic terms (complete with excessive exclamation points and bold print) just how bad the depression will be when the numbers of this age group declines. The author predicts the worst depression in history will occur sometime after 2010 (when the numbers of "big spenders" will decrease significantly.) Then he throws in a paragraph or two about what to do before the depression (invest in stocks) and just prior to the depression (sell your house by 2010 and invest in Treasury bonds.) That's it.
The Alpha Group that Leads the Herd August 28, 2004
43 out of 46 found this review helpful
Mr. Arnold's title attracted my attention because I, like many financial observers, do see a depression on the horizon. His use of the 45-54 year old baby boomer demographic is interesting and echos certain ideas of Elliott Wave Theory and Socionomics.
The author's conclusions, formed using a relationship between U.S. population growth and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, support a coming financial crisis of tsunami proportions, but his optimism that things will not erupt until the beginning of the next decade and his investment recommendations for the immediate future are arguable.
A purchaser of this hour-long read would be advised to immerse himself in Robert Prechter's, Conquer the Crash and Fiancial Reckoning Day by Bonner and Wiggin. These books better illustrate the world as it is, bringing together the influence of world money supplies, gold, interest rates, world politics and, very importantly, social mood.
Where Daniel Arnold sees the correlation of the population and the Dow Jones, Prechter documents the predictive value of the Dow in measuring social mood. I would allow that Mr. Arnold has accurately pegged the 45-54 year olds as the alpha group that leads the population's mood, or herd mentality, as a result of its purchasing and investing power.
Read this book. Look at the charts. Just don't make any immediate investment decisions without considering that our world is on the verge of a massive "asset devaluation" that will transcend stocks, bonds, real estate, and for a time, precious metals. The looming possibility of a world-wide liquidity crisis triggering liquidation of assets to cover the costs of mounting debt, should be of greater concern.
Arnold issues several warnings, should his predictions come true, and offers a number of actions individuals may take. Most notably, he supports why personal property most likely will be at risk to theft or destruction in an environment of rising unemployment and rising crime, but on page 51 advocates, "even if you would not support gun-control during healthy times, consider supporting gun control legislation to help take the dangerous edge off the crime wave that will hit during the depression." Libertarians and 2nd Amendment supporters will have a real hard time with that one.
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