The Numerati - Dark Publications

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Editorial Reviews:

Product Description
An urgent look at how a global math elite is predicting and altering our behaviorat work, at the mall, and in bed.

Customer Reviews: Read 25 more reviews...

5 out of 5 stars

Anything you browse can and will be used... to learn more about you September 6, 2008
24 out of 24 found this review helpful

Stephen Baker, a technology writer for Business Week, takes us into the world of data miners, forecasters, and matchmakers. The math whizzes who analyze our blogs for trends, create the ads that make us eager to buy, and analyze the chatter that could conceal signs of criminal activity--these are the Numerati. Baker gives us a chapter each on work, shopping, politics, spy vs. spy, healthcare, and even Chemistry.com. (What does the length of your ring finger have to do with the kind of person you're attracted to? Read and find out.)

Some of it is "house-of-the-future" stuff--imagine, for instance, a floor tile that will alert the doctor when your aging parent's gait seems more hesitant that usual. According to Baker, experts watching old reruns of Michael J. Fox shows can detect characteristic signs years before he was diagnosed with Parkinson's disease.

And then there's the political game. With ever-more-insightful analysis, political math mavens have found that (thank god!) America is nowhere near as polarized as you would expect. Many a liberal Democrat lurks in the McMansion suburbs, and vice versa. But politics is tough--your grocery basket doesn't lie, but nobody wants to give the time of day to a pollster. How they craft the exact political messages that will get you to the voting booth might, oddly enough, be related to your shopping habits.

Shopping--now this is a chapter that should be of interest to every die-hard Amazon fan. Sophisticated algorithms designed to deduce your taste in novels or music can be frighteningly accurate (or, as my Quick Picks occasionally remind me, maddeningly stupid, but that's the topic for a different book). After finishing this chapter, I could think of half a dozen things my grocery store knows about me that I never told them. If they chose to sell their data to magazine publishers, say, we would surely be targeted for the cooking mags ("Look, this family buys at least four units of different fresh herbs a week, and their weight in extra-virgin olive oil every month"). They can tell we have a teenager in the house ("Lots of Clean&Clear products") and could probably guess how old within a year or two ("Look it up--when did they quit buying diapers?"). Any health insurer would be interested in knowing that we spend a lot in produce and seafood, and very little at the meat counter--but what about those frequent trips to the candy aisle? It's a false positive, I swear--they're for the snack bar at my office!

You should be a little frightened, and more than a little fascinated, by The Numerati.

[Edited to add: For a more detailed look at the doings of one of the Numerati, take a look at Click: What Millions of People Are Doing Online and Why it Matters, by Bill Tancer of Hitwise.]

5 out of 5 stars

Great Review of A Trend, Better With Companion Reading September 10, 2008
15 out of 16 found this review helpful

I would highly recommend reading Baker's book immediately before or after reading How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of "Intangibles" in Business by Douglas Hubbard. Baker would probably consider Hubbard one of the "numerati". Both authors talk about some of the specifics of the analysis methods (but moreso Hubbard) and both talk about the general trends and impacts (but moreso Baker).

Like his table of contents (which is simply worker, shopper, voter, blogger, terrorist, patient, lover), Baker's book is sweeping if a bit terse in places. As a quant, I find Numerati an easy read with virtually no math but still enlightening even for the most quantitatively adept reader. There were several examples in Baker's book where I already knew of the mathod but had not heard of that application. He did some great research and covered a lot of topics in this giant and elaborate field of work.

My main concern for many management-level readers of this book is that in some cases Baker gives a reader just enough information to think they can apply it to a similar problem they have, falling into the "a little knowledge is a dangerous thing" trap. Again, this can be offset with a read of Hubbard's book. It might also have been helpful to talk about the rise of "crackpot rigour" in a world with lots of data and relatively few competent mathematical analysts (various "data mining" experts come to mind).

In all, its one of my favorite reads of the year. I felt like someone was finally casting light on my own obscure field.

2 out of 5 stars

Oversimplified, and Lacking Outcomes September 14, 2008
14 out of 26 found this review helpful

"The Numerati" features a number of interviews between Baker and various individuals leading research efforts into analyzing consumer data. Readers would easily be led into believing that a New Age is around the corner.

I can testify from experience (health care, education, prisoners, construction) that it's not so simple. There are just too many side issues that complicate situations (Baker does point out some of them) and/or negate/limit the value of findings. In addition, in some areas there is active resistance to such findings - education is the most glaring example.

Education priorities are now set according to making life easier and more profitable for educators, not improving pupil outcomes; educators are dead set against undermining their "gold mine." Similarly, physicians generally do not accept outcomes data - partly for good reasons (the data inputs are not as accurate as desirable), but mostly because they don't want light shown on their fiefdoms.

Meanwhile, simpler methods exist - eg. focus groups. Further, I was disappointed the Baker did not cover the Internet's existing powerful ability to guide pricing decisions by randomly/decision-aided quoting of different prices.

Bottom Line: "The Numerati" does provide an overview of current thinking in the areas of grocery shopping, possible crime and terrorist prevention, etc. However, NO information on the current value/usefulness of these techniques is provided - thus, potential practitioners receive little of value.

5 out of 5 stars

The geek shall inherited the earth September 8, 2008
10 out of 14 found this review helpful

A couple years ago, a friend's advice that I "skip the physics theory parts" enabled me to thoroughly enjoy Walter Isaacson's biography of Albert Einstein. So I was prepared to jump over the "math part" of Steven Baker's Numerati but was happy to discover that even the math-averse can enjoy this contemporary look at some of the country's geekiest numbers jocks and the work they are doing. Rather, the book is a tight narrative exploring the personalities behind some of the most ambitious number-crunching projects imaginable: data mining to discover ways to solve healthcare challenges, find terrorists or soul mates, or unlock the mysteries of the marketplace by analyzing the words used by bloggers. Really.

Baker's story-telling skill brings life to the zeroes and ones of these data masters. And marketers -- especially the metric-obsessed kind -- will find the book a great over-view of current thinking on the potential of what measuring the data related to our daily lives and actions can reveal.

Baker also points out the downside that occurs when people trade their privacy for convenience and customization. He echoes the concerns of privacy and civil liberty advocates (and science fiction authors) who warn us of the dark consequences of a society where all our actions are tracked and analyzed.

After reading how these elite numbers superstars are creating a world in which search engines will appear to know what we're seeking before we even know it, my only question is this: If these guys are so smart, how come the ATM I've been using for the past ten years hasn't figured out yet that I rather do the transaction in English rather than Spanish.

2 out of 5 stars

Entertaining but not enough substance November 2, 2008
9 out of 9 found this review helpful

I became interested in this book after reading the companion cover story in BusinessWeek. Although the stories and interviews were interesting, I thought the book fell short on connecting the math beyond the most basic concepts.

Baker admits he was a liberal arts major in college and doesn't pretend to fully understand the math behind the analysis. Obviously, an in-depth mathematical discussion would have been beyond the grasp of most readers and presumably the author. However, a little more detail on the methodologies beyond the simplistic descriptions would have given the book more substance and utility.

Data Mining and Data Warehousing have been around for many years. Retailers have used it extensively to understand their customers. Yet, Baker fails to discuss these established practices and compare them with this new emerging area.

Baker spends most of his book describing the people he interviews in a series of stories. The book is an easy read and is entertaining. If you read for entertainment and are interested in this subject, you will probably like this book. However, if you read for knowledge and are looking for a good, informative business book on this subject, it may disappoint you.

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